The Republic of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services Project.

Abstract

Seasonal prediction provides critical information for the tropical Pacific region, where the economy and livelihood of the population are highly dependent on climate variability. The usage of seasonal prediction for short-term climate variability is also a no-regret measure to adapt to climate change, one of the biggest threats in this region. Recent progress in dynamical seasonal prediction has improved the quality of climate services of many National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) around the world. While the highest skills of dynamical prediction systems are usually found in the tropical Pacific, NMHSs in the tropical Pacific do not have the necessary access or means to transform this high-quality scientific information into a decision-making tool. Current seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific region relies heavily on the empirical relationship between the regional climate and El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Charles et al. 2011). While ENSO is the largest source of predictability, the variety of its local impacts and its changing characteristics limits the skill of the empirical forecasting system. The gap between regional ENSO information, local place-based forecasts, and management information was recognized by the Pacific Islands Meteorological Strategy (PIMS) through the Majuro Declaration for Climate Leadership, as well as by the Republic of Korea (ROK) during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leader’s Summit in 2013. The Republic of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services (ROK-PI CliPS) project was initiated accordingly as a multiyear project in 2014. ROK-PI CliPS aims to provide high-quality climate data and value-added climate information through development of a regionally tailored seasonal climate prediction system, and to promote the building of NMHS capacity for climate prediction services in order to contribute to community resilience and national development planning. It is funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), Republic of Korea, through the ROK-Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Cooperation Fund (RPCF), which is managed by the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat (PIFS). It is jointly implemented by the APEC Climate Center (APCC) and Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environmental Programme (SPREP).