Abstract:
Scientific estimates suggest that the low-lying coral atolls of the Pacific will be especially affected by climate change. The vulnerability of atoll islands and atoll states results from a specific constellation of physical, ecological, social, and economic conditions, including the lopsided relationship between small land area and lengthy coastlines, and the problems of coastal erosion, limited drinking water, high population density, paucity of economic resources, and low incomes (Barnett and Adger 2003, 322–323; Nurse and others 2014, 1623, 1634; Connell 2015, 1). Recent studies of the changing morphology of atolls in the western and central Pacific stress the stability that these islands have so far demonstrated in the face of rising sea levels (McLean and Kench 2015, 456, 458; compare Connell 2015, 9–11). Still, the projected consequences of climate change— sea level rise, altered precipitation regimes, an increase in extreme weather events, ocean acidification, and coral bleaching—carry considerable risks for low-lying islands, since in combination with existing environmental challenges they will exert long-term negative effects on ecosystems, coastal regions, land surfaces, settlements, freshwater supply, and food security (see, eg, Barnett 2005; Lazrus 2012; Campbell 2014; Nurse and others 2014; Connell 2015). Therefore, experts do not rule out the possibility that climate-related changes to the environment and living conditions on atoll islands will be such as to render their continued habitation impossible for the majority of those living there and, consequently, threaten the national sovereignty of atoll states (see Barnett and Adger 2003; Mimura and others 2007; Barnett and Campbell 2010; Lazrus 2012; Nurse and others 2014).
